December didn’t disappoint, with even more encouraging data emerging about our future in the housing industry. Here we go with 8 more great items of good news that make me believe that we have made it through the worst and will soon be seeing the light at the end of the tunnel. No matter how dim that light is, it is better than the darkness that we have been through!
#8 – CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
After sliding for much of the fall, consumer confidence climbed in the past month and is now more than twice as strong as it was a year ago, according to the most recent results of the RBC CASH Consumer Attitudes and Spending by Household Index.
“The RBC Index shows that American consumers are optimistic that the economy will soon begin to improve,” said RBC Capital Markets U.S. economist Tom Porcelli.
Qualified Remodeler Magazine, December 10, 2009
#7 – FORECLOSURES
In a welcome piece of news, the number of foreclosure filings in the country declined 8% in November, according to data released Thursday by RealtyTrac.
. . . November represents the fourth consecutive month of reduced foreclosure activity.
In terms of regional trends, four big states – California, Florida, Illinois, and Michigan continue to report high foreclosure rates. According to RealtyTrac, those states represent more than half, or 52% of foreclosure activity across the country.
Alison Rice, Senior Editor, Online, BUILDER Magazine, December 10, 2009
#6 – PENDING HOME SALES
Pending home sales have risen for nine months in a row, a first for the series of the index since its inception in 2001, according to the National Association of Realtors.
The rise from a year ago is the biggest annual increase ever recorded for the index, which is at the highest level since March 2006.
“As inventories continue to decline and balance is gradually restored between buyers and sellers, we should reach self-sustaining housing conditions and firming home prices in most areas around the middle of 2010. That would mean broad wealth stabilization for the vast number of middle-class families,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist.
Residential Design & Build Magazine, December 4, 2009
#5 – HOUSING PERMITS
After three consecutive months of declines, housing permits, starts, and overall completions saw modest improvements in November 2009, according to the latest “New Residential Construction Report” released by the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development.
Stephani L. Miller, CUSTOM HOME Magazine, January 6, 2010
#4 – MORTGAGE RATES
Long-term mortgage rates fell to a new low this week, with a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaging 4.71 percent in the week ending Dec. 3, the lowest rate since at least 1971, when Freddie Mac started keeping track.
For homeowners who can afford a higher monthly payment, 15 year fixed-rate mortgages are even lower, averaging 4.27 percent, also a new low.
Jeff Clabaugh, Atlanta Business Chronicle, December 3, 2009
#3 – ARCHITECTURE BILLINGS
For architects who design houses, certain segments at the lower end of the market appear poised for recovery in 2010, according to new figures from the American Institute of Architects. This could be good news for homebuilders, considering architecture billings are often a harbinger of what’s to come in the construction pipeline.
Remodeling activity, meanwhile, enjoyed strong gains in the third quarter of 2009, with 27 percent of architects surveyed reporting an uptick in demand for renovations and additions.
Jenny Sullivan, Senior Editor, BUILDER Magazine, December 29, 2009
#2 – EXISTING HOME SALES
Existing home sales showed another big gain in October with a strong up-trend established over the past seven months, while inventories continue to decline, according to the National Association of Realtors.
“The supply of homes on the market is now at the lowest level in over two-and-a-half years – we’re getting closer to a general balance between buyers and sellers,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist. The last time the relative housing inventory was this low was in February 2007 when it also was at a 7.0 month supply.
Qualified Remodeler Magazine, December 1, 2009
#1 – ATLANTA HOME VALUES
Metro Atlanta home value in dollars went up through 11 months of 2009, according to data published Wednesday by Zillow Real Estate Market Reports.
Atlanta’s total home value was up by $7.6 billion to a total home value of $322.2 billion through November. Atlanta had the fourth-highest gain of any metro area.
“Home values stabilized significantly during the second half of 2009, with the total dollar value of U.S. homes increasing since June,” said Dr. Stan Humphries, Zillow chief economist.
Atlanta Business Chronicle, December 9, 2009
“You build on failure. You use it as a stepping stone. Close the door on the past. You don’t try to forget the mistakes, but you don’t dwell on it. You don’t let it have any of your energy, or any of your time, or any of your space.” – Johnny Cash
“I like the dreams of the future better than the history of the past.” – Thomas Jefferson
Now that we have closed the door on 2009, here’s your opportunity to share what you’ve gleaned from the past. Share your successes and struggles by commenting here and we can all have a better future moving forward together. You Can Do It!
Dale Peek
President
November started out a little slow so far as encouraging news about the home building industry was concerned, but by the end of the month I had way more items than I could fit in this issue. So, the encouragement continues, and things are still looking up, and “The Great Recovery” is upon us – take a look and see what I mean . . .
#8 – PENDING HOME SALES
Pending home sales rose again, marking eight consecutive monthly gains – the longest streak since measurement began in 2001, according to the National Association of Realtors.
In the South, pending homes sales increased 4.9 percent to an index of 109.7 and is 22.8 percent above September 2008.
Qualified Remodeler Magazine, November 2, 2009
#7 – UNEMPLOYMENT
In a hopeful sign for the economy, the number of newly laid-off workers filing claims for unemployment benefits fell below 500,000 last week (466,000) for the first time since January. That was the fewest since September of last year. And it was far better than the number economists had expected.
Weekly claims peaked at 674,000 in March and have since been trending lower.
Jeannine Aversa and Martin Crutsinger, Associated Press Writers, November 26, 2009
#6 – FORECLOSURES
The latest housing data suggests things may finally be turning around (on foreclosures). The inventory of new homes in metro Atlanta has shrunk to about 11,000, down 37 percent from a year earlier, according to real estate research firm Metrostudy.
“It’s just getting better and better,” said Eugene James, director of Metrostudy’s Atlanta division. “There’s no secret here. We’re selling houses.”
Paul Donsky, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, November 12, 2009
#5 – EXISTING HOME SALES
Buyers clearly felt the clock ticking in October, snapping up existing homes at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.10 million units, according to data released Monday by the National Association of Realtors (NAR).
It represented a 10.1% gain compared to the previous month and a 23.5% year-over-year increase in such activity.
Alison Rice, Builder Online, November 23, 2009
#4 – FIRST-TIME BUYERS
First-time home buyers reached the highest market share on record during the past year according ot the latest consumer survey of home buyers and sellers released at the 2009 REALTORS Conference & Expo.
“Tax incentives, record high affordability conditions and a pent-up demand brought a record share of first-time home buyers into the market,” said Paul Bishop, NAR Vice President of Research. “These buyers are critical to housing and a general economic recovery because the market always heals from the bottom up – they absorb inventory, free existing owners to make a trade and stimulate related goods and services.”
The number of first-time home buyers rose to 47 percent of all home sales from 41 percent of transactions in last year’s study, and was the highest on record dating back to 1981.
Qualified Remodeler Magazine, November 24, 2009
#3 – AFFORDABILITY
Nationwide housing affordability, bolstered by affordable interest rates and low house prices, hovered for the third consecutive quarter near its highest level since the series was first compiled 18 years ago, according to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index (HOI) released today.
Residential Design & Build Magazine, November 20, 2009
#2 – HOME SALES
Home sales will increase 15 percent to about 5.7 million units and Realtor income will be up 20 percent in 2010, NASR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun told a packed room of Realtors today in a residential economic update at the 2009 NAR Conference & Expo.
Yun credited the home buyer tax credit with unleashing sales on the lower-end of the housing market this year, bringing up to 400,000 first-time home buyers into the market who wouldn’t have bought otherwise. That influx tightened inventories of starter homes, shored up prices, and helped reduce households’ fear over continuing price drops.
Residential Design & Build Magazine, November 18, 2009
#1 – LEADING INDICATORS
Two of the most prominent leading economic indicator indices are absolutely booming, indicating that strong growth may occur in 2010. The primary reasons for the booms are 1) the rising stock market, 2) a drop in initial claims for unemployment, and 3) higher commodities prices.
Also, employment losses are bottoming out, and even previous months look better because of positive revisions. The pace of job losses is moderating in nearly all sectors of the economy, particularly in Manufacturing, which has seen the greatest decline. Finally, initial jobless claims and mass layoffs have slowed and are below peaks reached earlier this year.
The Leading Economic Index 6-month growth rate increased to 11.6% in September, recording the largest growth rate since 1983. The ECRI Leading Index, which is a gauge of future economic growth, has risen 26% since one year ago, representing the largest growth rate since ECRI began tracking the statistic in 1968. Stocks were essentially flat compared to last month. Based on October data, all four indices we track have posted positive year-over-year gains – the first time since December 2007 – and have risen 4-19% compared to one year ago. The S&P Homebuilding Index declined in October, falling nearly 9% from the prior month, yet has increased over 3% since one year ago. CEO’s are now much more confident about the economy, according to the CEO Confidence Index. CEO’s are now as confident about the economy as they were two years ago, and based on a recent survey 83% expect their profits to either remain flat or increase in the next 12 months and 84% of CEO’s plan to keep the same number of employees or increase the number of employees over the next year.
John Burns, John Burns Real Estate Consulting, November 20, 2009
I sure hope you are realizing some tangible results from all this great news. We’re just small fish in a really big ocean, but I have to say that we are busier right now that we have been in a long while. That’s just an indication of what is happening in our little part of the world, and certainly not quite up to where we were a couple of years ago, but it makes me hopeful that the glow I see at the end of the tunnel is daylight, and not a train!
Surely I’m not the only one that’s seen some encouraging activities. This blog is a great place to post your thoughts and experiences for us all to see. You never know how or who you might influence with your words of wisdom or stories of success. Hundreds who will read your words, so come on, make an impact!
Dale Peek
President